The water is warm, the wind sheer is declining, and it is late August. For those along the southern coastal areas, it is important to monitor waves of weather off the African coast for the next six weeks. The most active part of hurricane season is upon us. There is reason to be concerned.
A couple of days ago, BobbiStorm of Hurricane Harbor cryptically noted that it "looks like we have a swimmer to me." For those that do not follow her wacko rhetoric as often as I do, the interpretation is that she thought a classic hurricane would be forming off the African coast. Her prediction appears to be right. Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog confirmed that:
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 – 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L’s recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.
If it forms into a hurricane, the name will be Danielle. It only seems fitting to play a video from Danielle Peck, whose song could add Hurricane Danielle to a list of things that are bad for us: