National Hurricane Center

The media is trying to scoop each other on the five year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. In State Farm’s hometown of Bloomington, Illinois, the Pantagraph ran a story about State Farm’s Hurricane Katrina litigation. A massive and unfinished novel could be written on that subject. I found the article by Ryan Denhem, How State Farm Fought Through the Second Storm, to be far too light an analysis of some of the most important insurance coverage litigation ever waged.


Continue Reading The Hurricane Katrina Five Year Anniversary is Noted as New Hurricanes Lurk in the Atlantic Ocean

Guessing where a hurricane is heading is not an exact science. Those predictions are much better today than in the past due to better hurricane modeling. Via television, everybody can get constant updates on The Weather Channel. As Tropical Storm Bonnie approaches the oil drenched areas of the Gulf of Mexico, I wanted to share a few Internet sites I visit to quickly get an idea about what is going on and, if I have time, some fun.


Continue Reading Hurricane Watching on the Internet

Jeff Masters’ post, Act I, Scene I, Tropical Depression One of the Hurricane Season of 2010, indicated that a tropical depression was forming in the Western Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center has now confirmed this prediction and designated the storm Alex. In the discussion this morning was a note I did not like at all:

THE GFDL…SHIPS…AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET DO THAT…BUT WILL CALL FOR
MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


Continue Reading As Oil Destroying Our Gulf Becomes Normal–How About Adding Tropical Storm Alex to Mix Things Up?

(*Chip Merlin’s Note–Rocco Calaci has been a noted meteorology expert witness in the Katrina Legal Wars. After meeting him at a recent FAPIA Convention, I invited him to write a series of guest blogs. Click here to read his previous guest blogs)

(*Note from Rocco Calaci: I started issuing a "plain talk" interpretation of National Hurricane Center bulletins at the beginning of the 2008 hurricane season. I remind everyone that this is strictly a courtesy, I have no affiliation with any government agency, this is not a commercial service and the information is not for any type of decision. It is strictly FYI). 

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There is an area of disturbed weather moving across the Atlantic and approaching the Lesser Antilles. This area may become Tropical Storm Erika in the next day or so.


Continue Reading Tropical Storm Erika? – Rocco Calaci Gives His Plain-Talk Interpretation of the National Hurricane Center Bulletin

(*Chip Merlin’s Note–Rocco Calaci has been a noted meteorology expert witness in the Katrina Legal Wars. After meeting him at a recent FAPIA Convention, I invited him to write a series of guest blogs. Click here to read his previous guest blogs)

Why
Rocco Calaci

Why do people forget that the atmosphere reacts to weather changes at all levels besides the standard heights of 1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 300, 250 and 200 millibars? If someone doesn’t evaluate the entire column of air at all levels, how can an accurate analysis be performed? How can you trust algorithmic results from incomplete data?


Continue Reading Rocco Calaci Questions Current Models Used to Determine Wind Damage

(*Chip Merlin’s Note–Rocco Calaci has been a noted meteorology expert witness in the Katrina Legal Wars. After meeting him at a recent FAPIA Convention, I invited him to write a series of guest blogs. Click here to read Part 1 of this guest blog)

Is a hurricane only wind and water? (Part 2)
(Rocco Calaci)

Besides mesocyclones, there were numerous microbursts during Hurricane Ike. A microburst can best be described as strong downward (vertical) winds that result from a strong thunderstorm cell collapsing. The outflowing wind pattern is omni-directional, creating an elongated horizontal vortice along the leading edge of the winds.

This diagram obtained from the Internet (generated by the 45th Weather Squadron, USAF) depicts the wind pattern of a microburst as it hits the ground.


Continue Reading Part 2: Hidden Causes of Hurricane Damage: Meteorologist Rocco Calaci Explains That Hurricanes Are More Than Just High Winds And Water

*Chip Merlin’s Note–Rocco Calaci has been a noted meteorology expert witness in the Katrina Legal Wars. After meeting him at a recent FAPIA Convention, I invited him to write a series of guest blogs.
Continue Reading Hidden Causes of Hurricane Damage: Meteorologist Rocco Calaci Explains That Hurricanes Are More Than Just High Winds And Water