On April 4, Doctors Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, of Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorlogy Project, released their Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2012. In summary, they predict:
We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are relatively high. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. However, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
Their detailed analysis, past forecasts and verifications are available at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts.