Property Insurance Coverage Law Blog : Florida Insurance Lawyer & Attorney : Merlin Law Group Law Firm : Tampa, Houston, Coral Gables, Gulfport

Out in the Atlantic are three possible centers from a long, spread out ...wide area of convection. Let's call them Larry, Moe and Curly and I'm figuring none of them are going to make it to prime time unless they have a sex change operation or are cross dressers in which case Danielle may come out of hiding though she is progged to be a fish storm. Amazing...not even here on the maps and already written out of the script.

So... these are my thoughts…

If you are burned out from Colin or simply wishing on the weekend... I'd like to bring up a few topics before storms start popping and we can't remember we were bored, lethargic or afraid the whole season is going to be a bust.

According to Long Term models supposedly Danielle and Earl are down the road about to pop.... either in the Atlantic or close in around the Gulf… if Earl does the Gulf again I may lose it ;)

Fishy or not... think there is a sense here that they are all gonna be weak storms or fish storms and there is almost a dread to get invested in an invest because it's not going to be much but some wishy washy fish storm and barely more than a Tropical Storm

I say not... I say we are losing it to the hype that was the Mother of All Seasons and because we have yet to see any storm hit a home run we think this is all too boring to deal with .... a bunch of players walked with the bases loaded and suddenly the inning is over....

Well, I'm a Red Sox fan and we tend to stick around for the whole season...

My sport is football but I think this is a better analogy.

September Remember is the saying and it's a saying for a reason... we will remember this September I believe...and October.

So question?

How does this heat wave get unstuck.... note to people here who whine and complain we all want storms and death and destruction....there are more deaths from Heat Waves than Hurricanes and Tornadoes statistically. I'd fear the heat more than a Category 1 or 2 storm ...or even a 3.

I do not know whether heat waves are truly more lethal than hurricanes, but I am happy not to be in Russia this summer. The evening weather broadcast would be a lot more colorful if Bonnie were explaining it.

And, here's to hot Friday nights:
 

Rocco Calaci has taken time to write as a guest meteorologist on this blog. He has a web page listing sites and even tips for policyholders. Here are the sites he suggests for hurricane meteorology:

• National Weather Service
• National Hurricane Center
• Weather Underground Tropical page
• Gulf of Mexico Buoy Data
• Hurricane Tracking

The buoy data can be very revealing when a major storm is accompanied with storm surge. I was on the phone with Doug Branham of Colonial Claims before Katrina hit. He alerted me to the huge wall of water that eventually washed away parts of Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama based on this information.

Jeff Masters WeatherUnderground Blog and Hurricane Terrapin are the two quick sites I watch. I strongly suggest that the Discussion made by the National Hurricane Center be read to better understand how the professional meteorologists are viewing the accuracy of their predictions and expectations. The Discussions are on either of these two sites.

Finally, for some off the wall fun, I have long kept bookmarked BobbiStorm's Hurricane Harbor blog. For instance, this is how she concluded last night's post:

Either she intensifies or gets downgraded... that's my guess. And, expect to see that track pulled back to the north a bit more as Bonnie is being pulled more to the north around the flow of the Upper Level Low and it's an interesting storm... that's all I'll say. Each in it's own way is interesting.

Miami is amazing. Breakfast at Bayside this morning and hunkered down for a Hurricane Party tonight... low key party, no liquor... lots of cherries and designer water ;)

Sweet Tropical Dreams... Bobbi

Speaking of a party, the weekend is almost here and this nostalgia should help get you in the mood:

Accuweather.com released its revised forecast (”guess”) even before the Hurricane Season has started. This possibly could mean they are unreliable and have lost before the game has started. They now expect that there will be fewer named storms. Why should we pay attention to this forecast if they already admit they were wrong?

Nevertheless, here is the basis for their brand new forecast:

“AccuWeather predicts three tropical storms will hit the U.S. coastline, including two hurricanes, one of which could be at least category 3 strength.

Anywhere along the U.S. coast is susceptible to an impact, but the Texas coast early in the season and East Coast from Carolinas northward during the heart of the season are areas that have us worried," said Bastardi in a statement.

A weak El Nino pattern of warm water in the Pacific Ocean is expected to create wind shear to blow apart storms while cool water in the tropical Atlantic ocean will rob the storms of their primary energy source as dust and dry air blowing from Africa will inhibit storm development, AccuWeather said.”

I will try to contact the psychic I referenced above to see what she thinks. I imagine that her basis for a change may be no better than the meteorologists, but it may be much more interesting.

Stay tuned.

And seriously, now is the time to check that policy.

The archrivals of my beloved Florida Gators have a new hurricane study that is surprisingly academic. Normally, the Seminoles of Florida State University have a level of thought more akin to my post, Psychic Predicts No Hurricanes On Florida's Treasure Coast. Instead, Ryan Maue has an excellent discussion of this study on Steve McIntyre's Climate Blog regarding the reasons why we have seen a decrease in worldwide tropical cyclone activity over the past several years and why hurricane prediction is more Wizardry than science:

"Under global warming scenarios, hurricane intensity is expected to increase...., but MANY questions remain as to how much, where, and when. This science is very far from settled....Many papers have suggested that these changes are already occurring especially in the strongest of hurricanes, e.g. this and that and here, due to warming sea-surface temperatures (the methodology and data issues with each of these papers has been discussed here at CA, and will be even more in the coming months). The notion that the overall global hurricane energy or ACE has collapsed does not contradict the above papers but provides an additional, perhaps less publicized piece of the puzzle. Indeed, the very strong interannual variability of global hurricane ACE (energy) highly correlated to ENSO, suggests that the role of tropical cyclones in climate is modulated very strongly by the big movers and shakers in large-scale, global climate. The perceptible (and perhaps measurable) impact of global warming on hurricanes in today's climate is arguably a pittance compared to the reorganization and modulation of hurricane formation locations and preferred tracks/intensification corridors dominated by ENSO (and other natural climate factors). Moreover, our understanding of the complicated role of hurricanes with and role in climate is nebulous to be charitable. We must increase our understanding of the current climate's hurricane activity."

(emphasis added)

A chart in Maue's paper looks similar to my stock portfolio's recent performance: