State Farm's Departure is Problematic--What it Wants is Unclear

The Tampa Tribune ran a story, State Farm’s Exit From Florida Proving to Be a Problem for Some, which demonstrates problems consumers will have obtaining new coverage. The on-line edition of the story is somewhat entertaining because the comments show the disparate results of consumers who are shopping for insurance and confusion about underwriting. What is still unclear and troubling is exactly what State Farm hopes to gain from its announcement that it is leaving Florida. Certainly, it is losing revenue and access to a very large insurance market.

In a reply to State Farm Has Agents Spread Propaganda and Bullies North Carolina, I wrote in part:

“State Farm has many bright and dedicated managers running its operation. It is reflected in the extensive training and operations of the organization. It hires very effective outside consultants, lobbyists, and attorneys.


So, it comes as no surprise to me that they have set up a "decision tree" with alternatives which generally end up as a win-win for State Farm.


It can play the game of business as a "bully" or provide the appearance of being a long time supporter of Obama and a Good Corporate Citizen like it did with a full page ad in BusinessWeek just before the inauguration. It is now trying to show that it can be friends and supporters of the new federal government which it is lobbying.


State Farm is very, very good at getting what it wants in the long term. Just ask its competitors.”

State Farm executives certainly knew their announcement of its intent to leave Florida could have several different results. It would be hard to imagine that such bright business games players would not try to time the departure announcement for maximum effect and gain. Certainly, these executives contemplated the current scenario where Florida officials would not stop it from leaving. Whether they thought that Commissioner Kevin McCarty would prevent them from allowing their policies to be dumped into Citizens and having other restrictions mandated in the public interest is debatable. It will be interesting to see how this battle will play out over the coming weeks and months.

Nevertheless, shopping for homeowners insurance in Florida is not as easy as shopping for automobile insurance. State Farm may be hoping its spurned policyholders listen to its version of reality and complain to their elected officials. State Farm may be using its large customer base as leverage to cut a better deal.

State Farm's management may applaud and support articles similar to the Tampa Tribune’s. They can use such stories to show regulators in other states what happens when State Farm’s demands are not met. The hysteria and media exposure can help promote an alleged need for federal legislation and regulation that will be more favorable towards State Farm.

State Farm’s stated reason for leaving is a “sham,” according to the administrative law judge who presided over the rate request case. Its decision to leave is problematic only because it still carries so many policies. Possibly, State Farm knew that the timing of the announcement would carry more weight and cause more hysteria while it still held a large market share. If it left slowly and over a longer period of time, the impact of the announcement would not have caused as much of an uproar.

Exactly what the executives at State Farm want to achieve from all this and how they want the insurance market to operate is known by those at State Farm headquarters in Bloomington, Illinois. Floridians can only deal with the reality of State Farm’s hardball tactics and learn that they should never be vulnerable to this type of breach of the public trust.

In the long term, if we can encourage competitors to gain sufficient capacity, many of these problems will go away. The crisis State Farm is causing is one of timing---what are we going to do in the short term? So long as McCarty can mandate that State Farm disposes of its customers’ policies over several years and not force them to Citizens, Florida will get by this current crisis. However, if a massive hurricane or several moderate ones strike while this current financial crisis continues, an insurance crisis caused by an unfunded Catastrophe Fund will be upon us. Possibly, that is why State Farm executives decided to leave Florida---they do not want to be stuck holding the bag in the event the big one hits and the Catastrophe Fund has no money to reimburse it and other carriers. If the "big one" hits this hurricane season, Governor Crist will have many, including State Farm, in Washington asking for the Catastrophe Fund to access the Stimulus monies.

As we are getting closer to the summer months, I feel Floridians are on a runaway train and nobody has a plan to safely stop it. The only thing left to do is pray for a very long and clear track.

Florida Leaders Suggest Need For Federal Help With Catastrophe Fund

Florida Senate President Jeff Atwater is a banker with a heart. He has supported policyholder friendly legislation in past sessions. From a policyholder’s perspective, and unlike the Chamber of Commerce that is dominated by State Farm and the insurance industry, he is a businessman who stands up to insurance lobbyists and is one of the “good guys.”

Atwater is keenly aware of the financial problems with the Florida Catastrophe Fund. I found this remark in his January 28th letter regarding the Federal Stimulus Law important to all Floridians and the insurance industry:

“State discretion in the use of at least a portion of the package would allow Florida to stabilize its CAT fund and improve the viability of the commercial insurance market within the state. This would reduce the liability of our citizens for the financial consequences of a devastating hurricane season. Stability in the insurance markets would help sustain recovery in the housing market.”

The Catastrophe Fund must file a report by February 1st. Most anticipate that it will indicate that the Fund will not have sufficient access to money in the event of a hurricane because the credit markets are in turmoil. Atwater and all Floridians may need this “discretion” more than that one paragraph may indicate. 

Actuaries Are Underwriters With No Personality

My Tuesday morning last week started with an early interview with a Tampa radio station, WFLA, regarding the Citizens Mission Review Task Force. Insurance rates, caps to rate increases, bankruptcy of the state, and hurricanes could only make the morning radio news in Florida. What happened to the debate about Sarah Palin's sexiness? Anything is more exciting than topics discussed by actuaries. 

Then at 8 a.m. sharp, our very able Chairman, Bruce Douglas, called the meeting to order. For the next four hours, I kept thinking that the concept of an "actuarial sound rate" could only be devised by the nerdiest debaters among us. Its concepts are arcane, deep in statistics and risk, and not clearly defined. Thank God we have very capable (and I guess equally nerdy) Office of Insurance Regulators, such as Task Force Member Belinda Miller and Commissioner Kevin McCarty. I am convinced that the consumers and policyholders in Florida have a very special advocate in Tallahassee, unlike citizens of other states I have recently mentioned

Fortunately, we passed the caps to Citizen's rate hikes and kept the eligibility requirements the same. If implemented, the extraordinary rate hikes which could be imposed on some next year will not happen. A good day for consumers.

The humorous side to the meeting Tuesday was the appearance of my client, Carolyn Patterson, at the meeting. She saw me on the Monday night news and then emailed, asking if the meeting was public because she wanted to watch and talk to somebody at Citizens about her problems with an insurance company. I made a point in the meeting about Ms. Paterson's problem, and the next thing I know, Chairman Douglas has her testify. Since the press was talking with her when she finished, I imagine that my once unknown client might be quoted by the press regarding the horrors of being a "takeout" customer. During her testimony, she deadpanned that she showed me some language of her new policy, and that even I could not understand it. This resulted in some laughter from the audience and embarrassment for me.

After the session ended, I tried to explain what I think we did as a group to three newspapers and another television station. I recognize that the issues are very important, but I have never dreamed that issues of insurance rates, which will take effect a year from now, could ever be this newsworthy. The problem is that we are just making suggestions for legislation. The big fights will take place later this spring. We did not directly address the biggest issue.

The biggest question which needs to be answered by all the intelligent, nerdy actuaries and financial types is:
If we get into a really big hurricane season or another Hurricane Andrew, is there any way to avoid Florida's bankruptcy and inability to pay claims?

From what I have heard about the current scheme so far, the answer is no. Nobody wants to hear this. It is almost impossible to contemplate that the Catastrophe Fund will not operate to save us. But in some of the limited discussions we had on this topic, my impression is that no actuary is guaranteeing anything if a big disaster hits. All bets are off at that point. We will be charting new financial waters similar to what we are doing now with our economy. A few mentioned that Florida will have to look for a bailout. Seems like that line is pretty long right now.