When, Where and How Big are the Windstorms of the 2009 Hurricane Season?
Ever since last year, when I accurately predicted the hurricane season, people have been asking me these questions. I even put my money where my mouth is by placing our new office in Houston last June--before the hurricanes. Regarding my powers of prediction, it is better to be lucky than good. And, being in a Wizard's lineage helps. Unfortunately, Chambers of Commerce are not hoping we pick their town for our next office.
The archrivals of my beloved Florida Gators have a new hurricane study that is surprisingly academic. Normally, the Seminoles of Florida State University have a level of thought more akin to my post, Psychic Predicts No Hurricanes On Florida's Treasure Coast. Instead, Ryan Maue has an excellent discussion of this study on Steve McIntyre's Climate Blog regarding the reasons why we have seen a decrease in worldwide tropical cyclone activity over the past several years and why hurricane prediction is more Wizardry than science:
"Under global warming scenarios, hurricane intensity is expected to increase...., but MANY questions remain as to how much, where, and when. This science is very far from settled....Many papers have suggested that these changes are already occurring especially in the strongest of hurricanes, e.g. this and that and here, due to warming sea-surface temperatures (the methodology and data issues with each of these papers has been discussed here at CA, and will be even more in the coming months). The notion that the overall global hurricane energy or ACE has collapsed does not contradict the above papers but provides an additional, perhaps less publicized piece of the puzzle. Indeed, the very strong interannual variability of global hurricane ACE (energy) highly correlated to ENSO, suggests that the role of tropical cyclones in climate is modulated very strongly by the big movers and shakers in large-scale, global climate. The perceptible (and perhaps measurable) impact of global warming on hurricanes in today's climate is arguably a pittance compared to the reorganization and modulation of hurricane formation locations and preferred tracks/intensification corridors dominated by ENSO (and other natural climate factors). Moreover, our understanding of the complicated role of hurricanes with and role in climate is nebulous to be charitable. We must increase our understanding of the current climate's hurricane activity."
(emphasis added)
A chart in Maue's paper looks similar to my stock portfolio's recent performance:
.jpg)
This is a GREAT article.;)
Thanks very much.
Having an active hurricane season this year (in Florida) would probably wreak havok on citizens property insurance's ability to actually pay claims. I know alot of people are hoping for an active hurricane season.. but i'm hoping that all is clear for at least another year...so that people have time to finalize their 2005 claims and get their roofs replaced before the next Big One hits.
thanks for the article.;)
informative, as always.;)
Nancy,
This is absolutely the worst year for a significant hurricane to strike a major metropolitan area in Florida. In the event of a Big One, Citizens and the Catastrophe Fund are dependent on credit financing claims payments with assessments paying the financed debt over time.
There is no large credit available. So, where the claims payments are going to come from is anybody's guess. Some are hoping Governor Crist keeps his friendly ties with the Federal Government as a result of this concern.
The problem is that the worst things in life seem to happen at exactly the worst of times.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts and the very kind words.